Service Plays Sunday 10/10/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Plethora Of 2-2 Teams

The first quarter of the NFL season is in the books as 28 of 32 teams have played four games so far. It's been tough to separate the great teams from the mediocre ones as only one club, Kansas City, is undefeated at 3-0. Thirteen teams sit at 2-2 through four weeks as the reigning AFC Champion Colts own the same record as the Rams, who finished with just one win last season. Let's take a look at the seven 2-2 teams with early kickoffs and if they can get over that .500 hump.

Chiefs at Colts (-8, 45) - 1:00 PM EST

Kansas City has been the biggest surprise in the NFL after winning its first three games. The Chiefs return from the bye week to battle a Colts' squad that is coming off its second road divisional loss at Jacksonville. After Indianapolis fell at Houston the opening week, the Colts responded with a 38-14 thrashing of the Giants.

The Colts will try to repeat that effort against a Chiefs' team that hasn't allowed more than 14 points in a game. Kansas City has been a short underdog in each victory, as the Chiefs' passing game lit up the Niners thanks to Matt Cassel's 250 yards and three touchdown tosses. Indianapolis will have to slow down Kansas City's running game after the Colts have allowed over 420 yards on the ground in losses at Houston and Jacksonville.

The Chiefs are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog under Todd Haley, including covers in six of their last seven opportunities in this spot. The Colts own a 5-3 ATS mark since the start of last season as a home favorite of six points or more, while going 9-4 ATS since January 2007 at home against non-division opponents in the AFC.

Broncos at Ravens (-7, 39) - 1:00 PM EST

Denver heads back out east for the third time this season as the Broncos go for their first two-game winning streak since last November. The Broncos battle the 3-1 Ravens, who needed a last-minute touchdown to knock off the previously unbeaten Steelers. Baltimore's offense has struggled to get in the end zone consistently through the first month, scoring 17 points or less in three games.

For as much as the Ravens' offense has struggled at times, the defense has shouldered the load by not allowing more than 17 points in a game this season. Baltimore has hit the 'under' in three games, but is 0-2 ATS when laying points. Even though the Ravens didn't cover as double-digit favorites against the Browns, Baltimore is 10-4 ATS in the John Harbaugh era as home 'chalk.'

Denver's Kyle Orton is surprisingly atop the yardage leaderboard among quarterbacks, throwing for 1419 yards. The Broncos have needed to make up for running back Knowshon Moreno's injury, forcing Denver to air it out. The problem has been consistency through four games, as the Broncos have scored 17 or less in two losses, but 26 or more in two victories. Since covering its first four games to start last season, Denver is just 3-7 ATS the last 10 games as an underdog.

Packers (-2½, 44) at Redskins - 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay allowed 431 yards in a 28-26 victory over Detroit, holding the Lions to four field goals in the second half. Two of Green Bay's wins are against a pair of teams that are a combined 0-8 (Lions and Bills), as the Pack hits the highway to the Nation's Capital. The Redskins are one of three 2-2 NFC East squads, looking to capitalize off last week's 17-12 road underdog win over the Eagles.

The Packers can throw the ball all over the field, but after the loss of Ryan Grant, the running game has taken a huge hit. Since rushing for 132 yards in the season opener at Philadelphia, the Packers haven't run for over 92 yards in a game in any of their last three contests. Green Bay owns a solid 7-2 ATS record the last four seasons as a road favorite off a win, but one of those losses came in Week 3 at Chicago.

The Redskins have won twice outright as an underdog against the Cowboys and Eagles, while pushing as three-point 'dogs in an overtime loss to the Texans. Washington's offense will be without Clinton Portis, who suffered a groin injury against Philadelphia and is expected to miss four to six weeks. The Redskins have been outgained in each game, but have limited Dallas and Philadelphia to 19 combined points in two wins.

Jaguars (-1, 41) at Bills - 1:00 PM EST

Jacksonville pulled off the biggest shocker last week with Josh Scobee's field goal at the gun as the Jags knocked off the Colts as substantial home underdogs. The Bills remained winless after getting blown out at home by the Jets, Buffalo's third loss to a 3-1 team. Chan Gailey's team tries to get in the win column for the first time this season as the Bills parted ways with former first-round pick Marshawn Lynch this week, trading the running back to Seattle.

The Jags haven't been a solid play since the start of last season on the road off a home win, owning a 1-5 ATS mark. Both teams have been outgained in each game this season, while Jacksonville has allowed 28 points or more in each of its last three contests. This is Jacksonville's first trip to Orchard Park since 2006, as the Jags have beaten the Bills in two of the previous three meetings.

The Bills' offense has failed to produce, putting up 14 points or less in three of four losses, while allowing 34 points or more in each of the last three weeks. Buffalo has tallied less than 17 points in 10 of its last 14 games dating back to last season, resulting in eight 'unders.'

Bucs at Bengals (-6½, 38) - 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati may have plenty of big names on offense, but the Bengals slipped on a banana peel last week in Northern Ohio with a loss to previously winless Cleveland. The Bengals return home to host another non-playoff team from a year ago when the Bucs come off the bye and invade Paul Brown Stadium.

Tampa Bay crashed back down to Earth with its blowout loss to Pittsburgh following wins over Cleveland and Carolina. The Bucs will improve eventually, but the offense needs to pick up after scoring 17 points or less in two of three games. Tampa Bay has covered five of its last six games as a road 'dog dating back to last November, including the Week 2 victory at Carolina.

Cincinnati owns a dreadful 1-9 ATS mark the last 10 opportunities as a favorite, including last week's defeat at Cleveland as 1 ½-point 'chalk.' The Bengals are 6-3-1 SU the previous 10 home games against NFC opponents since 2005, but have covered just four times.

Giants at Texans (-3, 47½) - 1:00 PM EST

New York plays its third AFC South opponent in four weeks as the Giants make their first trip to Houston since 2002. The Giants knocked out Jay Cutler in last Sunday's 17-3 victory over the Bears, sacking the quarterback nine times before he left the game with a concussion. That win struck some life into New York, who had dropped double-digit decisions the previous two weeks to Indianapolis and Tennessee.

With the Colts, Titans, and Jaguars all at 2-2, the Texans sit atop the AFC South with a 3-1 mark following last week's road triumph at Oakland. Houston was able to put up over 30 points for the third time this season, as its top receiver Andre Johnson missed the Raiders game with an ankle injury. The Texans have been a terrific 'over' play, hitting three times as the defense has given up at least 24 points in each game.

For the exception of a strong second half against Carolina, the Giants' offense has struggled to put up points by scoring 17 or less in each of the past three games. New York has compiled a 14-7 ATS mark since 2006 as a road underdog, while the Giants lost in their only opportunity in this role at Indianapolis.

Rams at Lions (-3, 43) - 1:00 PM EST

The only win St. Louis picked up last season was at Ford Field, 17-10 over Detroit. Things have changed for the positive this season under rookie Sam Bradford as the Rams have doubled their win total after a Week 4 blowout of Seattle. The Rams play only their second road game of the season as they head to the Motor City to battle the winless Lions.

St. Louis is 5-2 ATS the last seven games as a single-digit road underdog, including a Week 2 cover as three-point 'dogs at Oakland. The Rams are winning with defense, limiting opponents to 17 points or less in all four games, resulting in three 'unders.'

Detroit has turned into a good pointspread play despite its 0-4 mark, covering three times. The Lions outgained the Packers by 170 yards last week, but their inability to get in the end zone resulted in Detroit's 20th straight loss in the state of Wisconsin. Being listed as a favorite is not favorable for Lions' backers, as Detroit is 2-7-1 ATS when laying points since 2006.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-1)

Why Jaguars cover: Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Bills are still unsure who their quarterback should be. Ryan Fitzpatrick is on a short leash.

Why Bills cover: In 17 road games since the start of the 2008 season, David Garrard has thrown only 11 touchdown passes while being intercepted 17 times.

Total (41): One team has a quarterback that doesn't play well on the road, the other has a quarterback that doesn't play well at all. This could be a snoozer.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-9)

Why Chiefs cover: They are winning with a run game that ranks third in the NFL and a run defense that is holding opponents to only 75 yards on the ground per game.

Why Colts cover: The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Total (44): Kansas City struggles to stop opponents through the air and Indianapolis struggles to stop opponents on the ground. Both defenses will have their weaknesses exposed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

Why Buccaneers cover: They have won five consecutive games straight up at Cincinnati, which is having a hard time running the ball with Cedric Benson. He is averaging only 3.3 yard per attempt this season.

Why Bengals cover: The Buccaneers offense in only putting up 16.7 points per game, which ranks 25th in the league.

Total (38): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+3)

Why Packers cover: They're 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings. Clinton Portis is out with a groin injury.

Why Redskins cover: Linebacker Nick Barnett and safety Nick Collins might be out for a Green Bay defense that is already allowing and NFC-high 5.2 yards per carry.

Total (44): Aaron Rodgers should have no problem posting points against a Redskins defense that is allowing 305 passing yards per game.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-3)

Why Rams cover: Sam Bradford is the real deal and will get to test a Lions defense that is allowing 26.5 points per game.

Why Lions cover: With three losses by a combined 10 points, Detroit has played almost everyone close this season.

Total (43): Neither team has a very good defense. If the offenses get rolling they could surpass the posted total.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (+1.5)

Why Bears cover: Carolina will be without leading receiver Steve Smith, who suffered an ankle injury last week.

Why Panthers cover: The Bears, who will be without quarterback Jay Cutler due to a concussion, are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (35): Under is 9-2 in the Panthers' last 11 games and 9-3 in the Bears' last 12 games.

New York Giants at Houston Texans (-3)

Why Giants cover: With both Andre Johnson (ankle) and Jacoby Jones (calf) questionable for Sunday, the Giants will be able to focus more on trying to stop Arian Foster and the Texans' powerful run game.

Why Texans cover: They will get Rookie of the Year linebacker Brian Cushing back from his suspension for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs.

Total (47.5): Both of these teams can put up points in a hurry.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Why Broncos cover: Their offense leads the NFL in passing yards while Baltimore is struggling to run the ball, averaging just over 80 yards per game.

Why Ravens cover: Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Baltimore.

Total (39.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+3)

Why Falcons cover: They ranks sixth in the NFL in total offense and are holding opponents to only 15 points per game.

Why Browns cover: Peyton Hillis is taking pressure off the passing game and allowing the Browns to control the clock. In his last two games, he has amassed 246 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Total (41): Under is 8-2 in the Falcons' last 10 games.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)

Why Saints cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. The Cardinals will start undrafted rookie free agent Max Hall at quarterback.

Why Cardinals cover: New Orleans has suffered multiple injuries to their secondary and running backs. The Saints are only averaging 19.8 points per game this season.

Total (46.5): Over is 5-1 in the Cardinals' last six games.

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

Why Titans cover: Chris Johnson has had his most productive games against teams that employ a 3-4 defense, like Dallas.

Why Cowboys cover: Tennessee plays undisciplined and is tied atop the NFL with 37 penalties for a league-high 344 yards.

Total (41.5): Under is 4-0 in the Titans' last four road games and 11-3 in the Cowboys last 14 games overall.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+5.5)

Why Chargers cover: They're 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Oakland. Favorite is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Oakland will be without the NFL's third leading rusher, Darren McFadden because of a hamstring injury.

Why Raiders cover: They have one of the best pass defenses in the league. They could keep this game close by limiting Philip Rivers and Co. through the air and making the Chargers move downfield via the run game.

Total (44.5): Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Why Eagles cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Alex Smith has been terrible this season and is already in danger of losing his job as the Niners' starting quarterback.

Why 49ers cover: LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick are out with injured ribs and the Eagles' offense is much more conservative with Kevin Kolb behind center.

Total (38): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (-4.5)

Why Vikings cover: The addition of Randy Moss gives Brett Favre a legitimate big-play threat, that will draw double teams and prevent opposing defenses from stacking the box to stop Adrian Peterson.

Why Jets cover: Santonio Holmes will return from his suspension and give Mark Sanchez a wide receiver who can stretch the field and create mismatches in the end zone.

Total (37.5): Over is 4-1 in the Vikings' last five games and 4-1 in the Jets' last five games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO

10* SAN FRANCISCO over Philadelphia

It’s been nothing but misery so far in 2010 for the 49ers. But they seem well set to make someone else miserable this Philadelphia week. Whether it’s Michael Vick or Kevin Kolb at QB, the Eagles face a cross-country trip to meet the heavy-hitting who have done enough to beat both the Saints and the Falcons, coming up short only after leaving them just enough seconds for each to nail the winning FG at the end. HC Mike Singletary’s changes seemed to work last week, as QB Alex Smith got the ball to WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis, the defense collected three sacks and picked off Matt Ryan twice, and big rookie S Travis Mays led the team with 9 tackles and scored after a blocked punt. Kolb figures to be overwhelmed by Singletary’s defense, and Vick—if he plays after getting squished in a Redskin vice last week—will be advised to stay out of harm’s way. Philly has given up 15 sacks so far.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Sheet

NFL KEY RELEASES

WASHINGTON by 8 over Green Bay
HOUSTON by 14 over N.Y. Giants
OVER THE TOTAL in the San Diego-Oakland game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Sheet Extra

NFL

ST. LOUIS
Well, why not keep riding our hot horse? The NFL Tech Plays have won three straight weeks with St. Louis and go for four in a row this week as the hot Rams travel to Detroit, where they scored their only win last season. The Lions are in what for them has been a very uncomfortable chalk role, one in which they failed in both attempts (one vs. the Rams) last season, 10 of 15 times since 2005, and 21 of 32 times the past decade.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sweep

4* New Orleans over ARIZONA New Orleans 42 ARIZONA 17
3* Chicago over CAROLINA Chicago 27 CAROLINA 14
2* BALTIMORE over Denver BALTIMORE 21 Denver 6
2* CLEVELAND (+) over Atlanta CLEVELAND 17 (+) Atlanta 14

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

BALTIMORE over Denver RATING: 2
TENNESSEE over Dallas RATING: 3
SAN FRANCISCO over Philadelphia RATING: 4
ARIZONA over New Orleans RATING: 5
BUFFALO over Jacksonville RATING: 5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NELLY

RATING 5 NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Arizona
RATING 4 CLEVELAND (+3) over Atlanta
RATING 3 ST. LOUIS (+3) over Detroit
RATING 2 HOUSTON (-3) over NY Giants
RATING 1 TAMPA BAY (+6½) over Cincinnati

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PLAYBOOK

5* NY Giants over HOUSTON by 11
The G-Men got off the schneid with a convincing romp over the Bears Sunday night. That’s not good news if you’re a true blue Texan at heart, considering the Giants’ sterling 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS mark in its last 30 road games, including 13-3 ATS when playing off a SU and ATS win. In addition, Eli Manning has been money in the bank as a starting quarterback in the league when taking to the road off a win, going 18-8 ATS, including 14-6 SU and 16-4 ATS the last 20. Meanwhile, Houston looks to improve to 4-1 for the first time in its franchise history while laying points for the first time ever in this series. Those are two tall hurdles for a team that ranks dead last in the league in total team defense. Aside from owning a rancid 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS mark in Game Fives, Tex is 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in games against teams from the rugged NFC East. Dogs with over 100 yards the better defense have always been to our liking. Houie’s 1-6-1 ATS mark as a home favorite in games in which its sports a .500 or greater mark cements it. Look out Houston, Eli’s coming.


4* ARIZONA over New Orleans by 6
Playoff revenge sets the table in this payback affair and we like the look of the setting. While both teams appear a shadow of their selves this season, it’s the Saints offense that has really regressed. Last year in its Super Bowl run, New Orleans averaged 33 PPG on 393 yards of offense per contest. This year they have yet to top 25 points in any game while mustering up 49 YPG less. And through their 0-3-1 ATS effort to date, the Saints have been +2 in TO’s. Meanwhile, the Redbirds, who have had problems of their own with an offense that has yet to ignite behind former Pro Bowl QB Derek Anderson, need only to look at last year’s 31-point playoff loss to the ‘Aints for extra motivation in today’s contest. That and Ken Whisenhunt’s remarkable 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS mark at home in games off a loss versus an opponent off a win should work together just fine. One word of caution: save room for dessert.


3* Kansas City over INDIANAPOLIS by 1
Look what we have here. An NFL powerhouse in a nasty mood, meeting a team trying to reestablish its once-proud identity. No, we’re not talking about the Colts. We’re talking about the 3-0 Chiefs, the NFL’s only team to remain unscathed this season. The question begs whether or not the week of rest Kansas City had last week was a momentum- breaker or a time to better strategize. We remember all too well Denver’s 6-0 surprise start last year, only to be foiled thereafter by the dreaded Bye Week. We put our trusty historical database to work on this stratagem and what we found was surprising, to say the least. It seems that teams who open the season 3-0 or better have excelled with a week of rest when taking on an opponent off a loss, going 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS overall since 1980, including a 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS run the last 12 years. FYI: the only team to lose in this scenario since 1998 was – you guessed it – last year’s Broncos. And, for what it’s worth, the last nine dogs to take the field off three straight up underdog wins in a row are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS. These same three-straight dog winners are also 3-0 ATS when taking points from a foe that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game. Oh yeah. In case you were wondering, Peyton Manning is 8-17 ATS in his NFL career in games off a SU favorite loss, including 1-7 ATS when favored by seven or more points. History lesson over. In stunning fashion, the Chiefs remain on the warpath.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RED SHEET

HOUSTON TEXANS 31 - New York Giants 17
Line opened at Houston minus 3, and is still minus 3. Giants sure turned it around with smothering effort vs the previously unbeaten Bears, holding Chicago to 3 pts, 6 FDs, & 110 yds (10 sacks). But now must take to the road, where they went down by a 38-14 count in their only previous guest shot (Indy). And, despite last week, NY is just 4-11 vs the spread of late, while the Texans are a team on a steady rise, & have already taken Manning #1, with a 34-24 win over the Colts on opening week. Foster (537 RYs, 6.3 ypr for season), Schaub & Co will be ready. RATING: HOUSTON TEXANS 88


San Diego 31 - OAKLAND 16
Line opened at San Diego minus 5, and is now minus 6. Yes, we know that the Raiders covered both '09 games with the Chargers, but that was certainly against the norm, & the fact is that SanDiego did win both games on the field. And that makes 13 consecutive SU Chargers series victories, with 12 winning margins larger than the 6-pt spot on this one. San Diego is again among the elites, behind the leadership of Rivers (15-of-20 LW), & that Charger "D" is in off a 9-sack showing. Raiders on the rise, but RB McFadden (a key) is hurting (hamstring), & can't stay with upper echelon. RATING: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 88

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 5
By Shawn Hartlen



Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-1)

Why Jaguars cover: Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Bills are still unsure who their quarterback should be. Ryan Fitzpatrick is on a short leash.

Why Bills cover: In 17 road games since the start of the 2008 season, David Garrard has thrown only 11 touchdown passes while being intercepted 17 times.

Total (41): One team has a quarterback that doesn't play well on the road, the other has a quarterback that doesn't play well at all. This could be a snoozer.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-9)

Why Chiefs cover: They are winning with a run game that ranks third in the NFL and a run defense that is holding opponents to only 75 yards on the ground per game.

Why Colts cover: The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Total (44): Kansas City struggles to stop opponents through the air and Indianapolis struggles to stop opponents on the ground. Both defenses will have their weaknesses exposed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

Why Buccaneers cover: They have won five consecutive games straight up at Cincinnati, which is having a hard time running the ball with Cedric Benson. He is averaging only 3.3 yard per attempt this season.

Why Bengals cover: The Buccaneers offense in only putting up 16.7 points per game, which ranks 25th in the league.

Total (38): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+3)

Why Packers cover: They're 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings. Clinton Portis is out with a groin injury.

Why Redskins cover: Linebacker Nick Barnett and safety Nick Collins might be out for a Green Bay defense that is already allowing and NFC-high 5.2 yards per carry.

Total (44): Aaron Rodgers should have no problem posting points against a Redskins defense that is allowing 305 passing yards per game.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-3)

Why Rams cover: Sam Bradford is the real deal and will get to test a Lions defense that is allowing 26.5 points per game.

Why Lions cover: With three losses by a combined 10 points, Detroit has played almost everyone close this season.

Total (43): Neither team has a very good defense. If the offenses get rolling they could surpass the posted total.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (+1.5)

Why Bears cover: Carolina will be without leading receiver Steve Smith, who suffered an ankle injury last week.

Why Panthers cover: The Bears, who will be without quarterback Jay Cutler due to a concussion, are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (35): Under is 9-2 in the Panthers' last 11 games and 9-3 in the Bears' last 12 games.

New York Giants at Houston Texans (-3)

Why Giants cover: With both Andre Johnson (ankle) and Jacoby Jones (calf) questionable for Sunday, the Giants will be able to focus more on trying to stop Arian Foster and the Texans' powerful run game.

Why Texans cover: They will get Rookie of the Year linebacker Brian Cushing back from his suspension for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs.

Total (47.5): Both of these teams can put up points in a hurry.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Why Broncos cover: Their offense leads the NFL in passing yards while Baltimore is struggling to run the ball, averaging just over 80 yards per game.

Why Ravens cover: Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Baltimore.

Total (39.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+3)

Why Falcons cover: They ranks sixth in the NFL in total offense and are holding opponents to only 15 points per game.

Why Browns cover: Peyton Hillis is taking pressure off the passing game and allowing the Browns to control the clock. In his last two games, he has amassed 246 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Total (41): Under is 8-2 in the Falcons' last 10 games.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)

Why Saints cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. The Cardinals will start undrafted rookie free agent Max Hall at quarterback.

Why Cardinals cover: New Orleans has suffered multiple injuries to their secondary and running backs. The Saints are only averaging 19.8 points per game this season.

Total (46.5): Over is 5-1 in the Cardinals' last six games.

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

Why Titans cover: Chris Johnson has had his most productive games against teams that employ a 3-4 defense, like Dallas.

Why Cowboys cover: Tennessee plays undisciplined and is tied atop the NFL with 37 penalties for a league-high 344 yards.

Total (41.5): Under is 4-0 in the Titans' last four road games and 11-3 in the Cowboys last 14 games overall.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+5.5)

Why Chargers cover: They're 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Oakland. Favorite is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Oakland will be without the NFL's third leading rusher, Darren McFadden because of a hamstring injury.

Why Raiders cover: They have one of the best pass defenses in the league. They could keep this game close by limiting Philip Rivers and Co. through the air and making the Chargers move downfield via the run game.

Total (44.5): Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Why Eagles cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Alex Smith has been terrible this season and is already in danger of losing his job as the Niners' starting quarterback.

Why 49ers cover: LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick are out with injured ribs and the Eagles' offense is much more conservative with Kevin Kolb behind center.

Total (38): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (-4.5)

Why Vikings cover: The addition of Randy Moss gives Brett Favre a legitimate big-play threat, that will draw double teams and prevent opposing defenses from stacking the box to stop Adrian Peterson.

Why Jets cover: Santonio Holmes will return from his suspension and give Mark Sanchez a wide receiver who can stretch the field and create mismatches in the end zone.

Total (37.5): Over is 4-1 in the Vikings' last five games and 4-1 in the Jets' last five games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns

Big NFL Divisional Total of the Month

Chargers / Raiders Under 45

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Norm Hitzges

NFL

Double Play—New Orleans -7 vs Arizona

KC +7.5 vs Indy

St. Louis +3 vs Detroit

NY Giants +3 vs Houston

Baltimore -7 vs Denver

Oakland +6 vs San Diego

Dallas -6.5 vs Tennessee

Cincinnati/Tampa Bay Under 38

Atlanta/Cleveland Under 40.5

 

[polishrebel]

Georgia -yeah
Texas Tech -OH YEAH
LSU-?? u can do it!

Hope your day is going well boys

Gold Medal Club NFL:

10* Arizona
10* Washington
25* Detroit
25* Indy

I am playing all four games but doubling up on lions and Indy.
as always GL boys!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MADDUX SPORTS

GAME OF THE YEAR
20 UNIT Buffalo Bills -1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NFL Picks

Kansas City at Indianapolis

The Colts look to build on their 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 October games. Indianapolis is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-8). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 10
Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (10/5)

Game 411-412: Denver at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.877; Baltimore 136.767
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 9; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-7); Over

Game 413-414: Jacksonville at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 123.600; Buffalo 127.399
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 37
Vegas Line: Pick; 41
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo; Under

Game 415-416: Kansas City at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 130.504; Indianapolis 143.144
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 12 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 8; 44
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-8); Under

Game 417-418: St. Louis at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.490; Detroit 123.416
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 419-420: Atlanta at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 138.324; Cleveland 127.305
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 11; 45
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3); Over

Game 421-422: Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 125.054; Cincinnati 135.879
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 11; 35
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6 1/2); Under

Game 423-424: Chicago at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.227; Carolina 129.143
Dunkel Line: Even; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over

Game 425-426: Green Bay at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.631; Washington 131.641
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9; 41
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-2 1/2); Under

Game 427-428: NY Giants at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.354; Houston 134.249
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Under

Game 429-430: New Orleans at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 138.306; Arizona 127.647
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Over

Game 431-432: San Diego at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 135.358; Oakland 124.493
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 11; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6; 45
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6); Over

Game 433-434: Tennessee at Dallas (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 135.467; Dallas 137.457
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7); Under

Game 435-436: Philadelphia at San Francisco (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.790; San Francisco 130.291
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DOC SPORTS NFL

4 Unit Play. #122 Take Detroit Lions -3 over St. Louis Rams (Sunday 1 pm Fox)
DETROIT LIONS 28, ST. LOUIS RAMS 17

5 Unit Play. #133 Take San Diego Chargers -6 over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 31, OAKLAND RAIDERS 17

4 Unit Play.#136 Take San Francisco 49ers -3 over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 24, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 13

Note: try and shop around to find this game at -3, some books are posting it at -3.5. We still do recommend this play at -3.5 if that is your only option.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Football Prophet

1. Houston Texans -3 -105

2. Packers/Redskins over 43 -120 - buy 1/2 point

3. Chargers/Raiders over 44 -120 - buy 1/2 point

4. Chiefs/Colts over 44

5. Rams/Lions over 42

6. San Francisco 49ers -3

7. Jaguars/Bills over 41

8. Saints/Cardinals over 44

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GOLD SHEET SOLID GOLD ALERT TWO UNIT PLAY FOR SUNDAY, OCTOBER 10:

NFL FOOTBALL:
SAN FRANCISCO (-3) -Home over Philadelphia 5:30 Pacific
Insiders report the San Francisco coaches and players are certain they can get back in the NFC West race if they
win this game.
— Despite its slow start, the 49ers are only two games out in the NFC West and have seven games remaining with
their division foes, including all three divisional home games.
The 49ers expect to be improved on both offense and special teams.
— Pro Bowl C Eric Heitmann, out since the preseason with a leg fracture, has been cleared to return, improving the
team's blocking at both center and guard (current center Mike Baas formerly played guard).
— WR/PR Ted Ginn Jr. is expected to return after missing the last three games with a knee injury.
Philadelphia is not 100% healthy.
— Mike Vick is out with injured rib cartilage.
— QB Kevin Kolb (pronounced "kobb") will be making the first road start of his career, and only his fourth overall.
— RB LeSean McCoy says he will try to play despite a fractured rib.
— The Eagles offensive line has struggled all season; Philly has given up 15 sacks, second-worst in the league
behind only Chicago.
— Philadelphia is 26th in rushing defense.
San Francisco has had one of the tougher schedules in the league through the first one-quarter of the
season, playing three of its first four games on the road.
— S.F.'s only home loss this season has been to Super Bowl champion New Orleans on the last play.
— S.F. is 8-2-2 vs. the spread its last 12 games at home, including 6-2-1 as a favorite.
Frank Gore and the S.F. rushing attack should get going early, and the 49er defense should hurry Kevin
Kolb into some key errors as the 49ers get their first win and stay alive in the NFC West.
Predicted Score: SAN FRANCISCO 27 - Philadelphia 10